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Analysis of BMW Club Crash Data

Folks, I sent copies of the two files I promised to post to Rich Welty 
a few days ago, but never heard anything from him. If it comes up as 
gibberish, I regret the waste of bandwidth, but here's another try. I 
suspect it will be missing the "carrage returns" so you may have to 
rewrap it.

Steve Musolino
								March 24, 1995

Analysis of Incident Reporting 1993-1995


	In 1993 a system of incident reporting was initiated by the National Board of the BMW Club. With the implementation of the Driver School Standards in 1995, incident reporting was made mandatory if a vehicle sustained physical damage or if a participant was injured.


Caveats

	Because of the limited nature of the raw data, the analysis below inevitably has some incompleteness. The number of incidents shown in Tables 1 and 2 only reflects those Chapters that elected to comply with the incident reporting system. It appears from the two most previous years of data that the Chapters that chose to report in 1994 also complied in 1995. There were only 5 reported incidents in 1993. The correlation of Chapters with incidents and track-days, shown in Table 1, were based those Chapter that either placed announcements in the Roundel Calender of Events and/or reported an incident(s). Since there were events that were not publicized in the Roundel, the total number of track-days has some error, but it is probably small.

	The raw data is not representative of the relative risk of incidents/injuries or severity on the part of any given Chapter. The details of the many confounding factors that could lead to an incident or injury are not apparent from the data, i.e. proficiency of the students and instructors, experience with a given track, fatigue, etc.

	The raw data published by National for external distribution is an edited version of the original incident reports. The editing may or may not have influenced the interpretation.


Observations on the Data

	Even though Tables 1 and 2 do not contain a complete retrospective, the data are most likely a representative sample that characterizes what is going on throughout the Club.

	As expected spins and rollovers accounted for the majority of the damaged cars, but there were some noteworthy circumstances as well as a few unexpected and disturbing events:

	1. As shown by Chart 1, in 1993, 3 of the 5 reported incidents (60%) were caused by brake failure. (Note that one of those also resulted in a rollover, but the Chart is by Initiating Event not by outcome so the fact that a rollover occurred is not reported in the count).

	2. In 1993 and 1995, Instructors driving Student cars were involved a total of 1 and 2 crashes, respectively. Recognizing that the full details of these crashes are not apparent from the data, it appears that Instructors damaging Student cars should be a very significant concern.

	3. In 1994 and 1995 there were a total of 1 and 2 metal to metal crashes, respectively. These are very serious occurrences with high risk of injury/fatality associated with them.

	4. In 1995 two drivers were injured. These facts speak for themselves.

	5. In 1994 and 1995 car crashes occurred at a rate of 4.47 n  2.1 and 4.59 n  2.1 Track-Days/Incident, respectively.


Things the Data Does Not Show

	The rapidly advancing technology being engineered into performance cars and tires permits drivers with little or no driving skill and/or experience to achieve high speed-high g conditions way ahead of their ability to cope with the circumstances. There are clear exceptions, e.g. deer on the track, but most car crashes are a result of driver error.

	Drivers are making errors at increasingly higher speeds.

Conclusion

	The Club as a whole remains at high risk of crashes involving severe injury or fatality.

Table 2. Number of Reported Incidents by Track and Year


Track		                     Year


		93	94	95

Brainaird		1	 
Bridgehampton		5	2
Firebird	1	1	2
Lime Rock	1	3 	 
Mid Ohio		1	4
Moroso	 	3
NHIS		2	1	2
Putnam Park		1	 
Road America	1	2	6
Road Atlanta		1
Roebling Road		1	 
Summit Point		1 	2

Table 1. Number of Reported Incidents and Track-Days From Roundel Calender of Events

Chapter		Incidents   Track-Days     	Incidents   Track-Days

		              1994		              1995

ACA LA		3		3
Badger Bimmer		1	3	4
Boston			2	2	2
Buckeye		2	9	4	6
CCA Canada		2		6
CT Valley	1	3		2
Delaware Valley		2		3
Everglades		1	3	1
First Coast	1	2		2
Florida Suncoast			1	1
Genesee Valley		4		4
Golden Gate				6
Hoosier			3		2
Motor City		2		2
National Cap	1	5	2	6
New Jersey		4		6
New York	4	6	2	5
Northern Ohio		4		4
North Star	1			1
Patroon		2	2		2
Peachtree	1	6		6
Pocono Mountain		1		1
Road Runner	1	2	2	2
Rocky Mountain		2		1
San Diego		4		2
Sonora/N.Mexico				2
St. Louis				3
Sunbelt					1
Sunshine Bimmers		1		1
Tarheel					4
White Mountain	1	1		1
Windy City	2	4	3	6
Unidentified				2
Unidentified				2




Total		17	76	22	101

Track-Days/Incident		4.47 +/-  2.1		4.59 +/-  2.1