Kinda scary look into the future!!

["John Fielding" <johnf@domain.elided>]

Hi All,
here is something for you all to ponder.

During my research into automotive electronics systems I have noticed more
and more articles detailing the projected increase in electronics in modern
automobiles.  In one paper the writer stated that the electonic and
electrical component costs of an automobile by the year 2005 was predicted
to be 35% of the total.  By 2003 the electronics incorporated into modern
vehicles would exceed $9 billion per annum worldwide!  Part of the effort is
to reduce the amount of copper wire used in automobiles.  The average family
saloon automobiles has about 1500m of wire and a top of the range models
closer to 3500m.  An alternative is the CANBus system where all the various
items which are switched, indicators, headlights, wiper motors etc will
occupy a "seat" on the central "Bus" and be supplied with a raw 12V or 42V
supply with a single heavy wire which runs from unit to unit.  A separate
small wire will carry the CANBus signal.  Each item will have a unique
"address" on the Bus and will be turned on or off with a serial bit stream.

"Hey You, over there sitting on the left rear indicator - Turn ON, now Turn
OFF".

These can be switched in less than 1ms with a typical CANBus serial stream.

Drive by wire - brake by wire & steer by wire is upon us.  No longer will
automobiles have steering columns which the driver twists and transfer the
effort directly to a steering rack, the steering wheel will have an
electronic tactile sensor which gives the driver "feedback" according to the
program you select.  Brake by wire is already here.  Brembo and a major
electronics manufacturer have systems already installed in up-market
vehicles. The brake  pedal has a sensor which is tactile and the sensor
drives the individual wheel  braking motors via a central processor.  No
nasty brake fluid needed here.

Throttle-by-wire is also now available,  not just F1 cars using it.  The
accelerator pedal has a tactile spring loaded sensor  which then via the
processor drives an electric motor to operate the throttle plates on the
motor.  BUT with Direct Injection there will be no throttle plates.  The
system will be similar to a deisel motor with power controlled by the
amount of fuel injected directly into the cylinders.

Why all this technology?

The major motor manufacturers desire is to produce automobiles with fewer
parts and better emissions and driveability, whic translates into lower
costs and better customer acceptance of their product.

Another thing I have noticed is the latest techology of EVT.  This stands
for Electronic Valve Timing. This is the demise of the camshaft.  Cars will
no longer have camshafts, the valves will be opened and closed by electric
solenoids controlled by the central processor.  Far fetched?  Not at all.
Motorola and Bosch have systems already in production.  These have
several modes of operation.  By selecting city or sports mode the motor
characterisitcs can be changed instantly, overlap, duration, lift etc can
all be changed on the fly by a push of a button. This of course makes the
42V battery  mandatory as 12V solenoids would draw too much current
to lift the valves against the springs.

A thing I noticed in a recent car magazine is the electric starter is being
moved to the motor flywheel and is incorporated with the generator for
battery charging - 42V of course!  The starter motor will have the motor
running in less than 0.2s from the driver pressing the accelerator.  At
traffic lights the motor will be shut off to conserve fuel and the
environment.  The starter is also touted to propel the vehicles for short
distances, such as stop-go city traffic at less than walking pace.  Silent
power as one writer stated.

All of these are intended to provide a better drive.  With electric braking
and throttle control the advent of "real traction control" has arrived.
Easy to incorporate the ABS into the system with a few extra lines of
software!

Coil-on-plug ignition systems were first announced about 3 years ago.  At
the time it was destined for up-market models.  Not 2 months ago I saw a
full coil-on-plug system on a Nissan small saloon car, the Almera which
sells for less than a VW Jetta!

So what will the service workshops of the future do when you take your car
in for a scheduled service?

No need to check the plugs, the coil-on-plug systems have a life of
100,000kms minimum.  No valve clearance to check, the EVT system
automatically maintains zero lash as the hydraulic tappet of days gone by.
No idle speed to set, the ECU takes care of that.  No brake fluid to check,
the calipers are operated by electric solenoids.

I guess apart from oil & filter plus air filter the service will be limited
to checking belts for A/C and power steering.  Oh I forgot to mention PS.
These are now being designed for electric motor drive!  So scratch the power
steering pump oil level check!  Water pumps will be electric motor driven
with variable speeds to maintain a constant water temperature for better
emission performance.

Will these cars be able to be "tweaked" for better performance?  I guess the
situation will be sort of like the 1980's when EFI first became commonplace.
Older tuners shook their heads and didn't know how to address this new
fangled craze.  Hell with a 4 barrel carb you could change jets, boosters,
emulsion tubes and other things to hop-up the motor.  When "gearheads"
finally delved into EFI they surprisingly came to the conclusion that the
ECU could be "chipped" to do almost anything you wanted without touching the
motor at all!

Hells bells - I am glad I drive a dinosaur car I can fix!

John Fielding
Durban
South Africa

Alfetta 1.8L turbo

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